We must transform our energy supply to mitigate climate change, while simultaneously recognizing that climate change itself will have profound impacts on our energy provision. How these effects interplay, how best to prepare for them, and how to establish a reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective energy system for Austria and Europe have been explored in a research project led by TU Wien, in collaboration with the AIT Austrian Institute of Technology and the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU).
The good news is that a climate-resilient energy system is attainable using current technology. The notion that the energy transition is fundamentally infeasible due to technical or economic constraints is incorrect. However, many changes are required by 2050 and beyond, including improvements in energy efficiency, an ambitious expansion of renewable energy sources, modernization and expansion of power grids, better energy storage solutions, and increased flexibility in electricity consumption to align supply and demand more effectively at all times.
Climate Change Influences Everything
"What's new about our project is that we closely link climate models and energy system models," explains Franziska Schöniger from the Energy Economics Group at TU Wien, who led the "SECURES" project (Securing Austria's Electricity Supply in times of Climate Change).
Climate and energy are interconnected in several ways. For climate protection reasons, there should be a shift away from fossil fuels in electricity generation. Simultaneously, climate change affects the output of renewable energy sources. The number of sun and wind hours in specific regions is changing, and even hydropower generation is heavily impacted by climate change, such as when there is less snow and more rain in winter, or when summers become drier.
Moreover, climate change has implications for the demand side. In milder winters, less heating might be needed in the future, while the electricity demand for air conditioning in summer is likely to increase.
"To consider all of this, research teams in our project closely collaborated between meteorology and energy system modeling," says Herbert Formayer (BOKU), who led the climate modeling aspect of the project. "We found, among other things, that adjusting the energy system to a 'typical' year, as we've known from the past, is insufficient. Our future electricity supply must also handle larger and more frequent weather extremes, such as heatwaves and cold spells."
The Transition is Feasible
Models indicate that transitioning the energy system is complex and requires substantial investments, ranging from expanding wind and photovoltaic capacity to enhancing power grids. However, from a technical perspective, it's all achievable. "You have to plan the entire system intelligently. For example, a well-planned mix of PV, wind, and hydropower can mitigate seasonal fluctuations: PV generates more electricity in summer, while wind generates more in winter," says Demet Suna (AIT), who led the energy system modeling in the project. Various storage technologies will also play a crucial role, from traditional pumped storage hydroelectricity to batteries and energy carriers like hydrogen.
A key element of the energy transition will be demand-side flexibility. Often, large amounts of energy are required within a specific time window rather than at a precise moment. For instance, an electric vehicle may be charged overnight, but whether it's fully charged in the evening or early morning may not matter. In an industrial facility, a boiler may need to be heated, but perhaps this scheduled task can be shifted to the morning when solar energy is particularly cost-effective due to high sun exposure. "Such flexibility not only saves money but also helps keep the power grid stable," says Gustav Resch (AIT), the project's initiator.
The Most Significant Challenges on the Path to a Climate-Resilient Energy System, according to Schöniger, are not primarily technological; the necessary technology is already available. Instead, she believes that the greater difficulties lie in political and social questions: How can Austria achieve national goals at the regional and local levels? How can the population be convinced of the necessity of the energy transition and foster acceptance of renewable installations? Do we have enough workers to implement the necessary technical adjustments comprehensively? Often, different challenges arise than initially anticipated. However, interdisciplinary modeling can be used to develop future scenarios that reveal technically and economically robust solutions. Based on this foundation, it can be deduced what is currently lacking and which actions should be taken to ensure a secure and climate-friendly electricity supply in the future.
For more information, you can refer to the newly published final report (published on October 16, 2023).
DEMET SUNA
Center for Energy